Treeconomy Awarded European Space Agency Contract to Scale Its Integrated Biomass Model for Forest Carbon With Built-In Uncertainty

Treeconomy has started a 12-month project with the support of the European Space Agency (ESA). The initiative, titled GAIA-M, is funded through ESA's Business Applications and Space Solutions programme, part of ACCESS, with support from the UK Space Agency. Work officially began on 21 September 2026.

GAIA-M supports the next stage of Treeconomy's integrated biomass model. The model is already used by project developers today and is now set to scale with forest asset managers.

Using satellite data alone, the model gives a quick first assessment. As field plot data is added, the model deepens its representation of the site and narrows the uncertainty range. This integrated approach forms the core of Treeconomy's biomass engine.

GAIA-M focuses on scalability. The project will transition the model from project-by-project delivery into an enterprise-ready production service capable of assessing multi-project portfolios simultaneously, delivering the data standards and uncertainty metrics that institutional investors and carbon buyers require.

ESA selected GAIA-M following a detailed technical and commercial review of the project and of Treeconomy's business.

Why this matters

Demand in the voluntary carbon market is shifting towards long-term commitments. Major corporate buyers are entering agreements spanning ten years or more, requiring project developers to commit to minimum carbon delivery volumes with financial penalties if projects under-deliver.

This shifts significant weight onto carbon accounting accuracy. Developers want to commit as much volume as they can, because it unlocks upfront finance. But they cannot afford to over-commit. A tighter, well-evidenced uncertainty range allows developers to structure sales agreements with clarity and confidence.

Asset managers face the same problem at a larger scale. They hold many forest sites, often across different regions and forest types. To value their holdings, report to their investors and sell carbon, they need numbers for every site that are consistent and that they can trust. A portfolio is only as strong as the numbers behind each site.

Satellite imagery alone cannot provide this precision. While global biomass maps are effective at national or regional scales, their uncertainty margins at the individual project level remain too wide to underpin volume commitments. A global map is built for averages across huge areas, not for one site.

Treeconomy’s answer is to combine satellite data with field data from the site itself, building a model of each project. That model isn’t fixed. It updates as new field measurements and satellite images come in, so it keeps track of how the forest is changing. And because no estimate is perfect, the model states its own uncertainty. how far off each number could be. An uncertainty you can’t see is a risk. One you can see is something you can trust, understand and plan around. 

What the project adds

The integrated biomass model demonstrates that combining ground measurements with remote sensing yields higher accuracy than satellite data alone. It works with the standard field plots that developers already collect, without the need for costly specialist kit.

GAIA-M advances this capability across five key areas:

• Drone LiDAR integration: Incorporates high-density canopy height and structural data alongside satellite and field measurements through a single unified data pipeline.

• Expanded satellite inputs: Integrates data from Copernicus Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2, high-resolution optical sensors, NASA's GEDI spaceborne LiDAR, and reference data from ESA's Biomass mission.

• Quantified, auditable uncertainty: Tracks and quantifies uncertainty sources throughout every processing stage, subjecting estimates to rigorous testing to ensure confidence intervals stand up to independent audit.

• Broader ecosystem coverage: Extends model performance across a wider range of restoration sites and forest types.

• Portfolio-grade infrastructure: Builds scalable processing pipelines to handle multiple sites concurrently, accompanied by a field data collection app, continuous automated updates, and a redesigned user interface.

What comes next

Over the next 12 months, Treeconomy will expand, test, and transition the model into a full production service. Nature-based project developers Wilderway and Great Yellow will deploy the technology on active restoration sites during a live pilot phase, with operational feedback shaping the commercial release. The goal is to deliver continuous site-level updates that meet the evolving compliance and investment criteria of carbon markets.

Every forest carbon project needs to demonstrate its carbon stocks, track changes over time, and provide an auditable metric of confidence. Closing this gap matters for asset managers valuing and reporting on their portfolios, for developers raising finance, for buyers signing multi-year contracts, and for trust in nature-based carbon removal as a whole.

Harry Grocott, CEO of Treeconomy, said:

"Asset managers need to know what their forests hold, across every site in a portfolio, and how much they can trust those numbers. Project developers already use our integrated biomass model to get that view of their sites. Securing this contract meant going through ESA's demanding technical and commercial review, and we're proud of that. With ESA's support, GAIA-M will scale the model across whole portfolios, giving asset managers, investors and long-term buyers the level of certainty they need."

Beatrice Barresi, Senior Sustainable Applications Officer added:

"GAIA-M is a great example of how space data can make a real difference on the ground. By combining satellite observations with drone and field data, Treeconomy is helping forest owners and investors understand how much carbon their forests hold, and how far they can trust that number. Supporting projects like this, which could potentially lead to commercial applications, is what ESA BASS is for, and it is good to see data from missions such as ESA's Biomass satellite put to work for nature restoration"

Asset managers and project developers who want to assess their sites using the integrated biomass model can book a demo with our team.

Building on earlier space-funded work

GAIA-M builds upon Treeconomy's history of space-supported technology development. Previous projects funded by the UK Space Agency established the core data architecture for processing Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, GEDI, and ICESat-2 data. GAIA-M integrates these streams into a single commercial tool that unifies satellite, drone, and field data at lower cost and with more certainty than any single data source alone.

About Treeconomy

Treeconomy is a UK-based earthtech company scaling nature restoration through remote sensing and machine learning. Its digital MRV technology supports asset managers, project developers and carbon buyers by bringing more traceability, transparency and trust to nature-based carbon removal.

About the European Space Agency’s BASS programme

ESA’s Business Applications and Space Solutions (BASS) has been helping companies deliver space-based services and products since 2010, and has supported more than 1,000 studies and 750 projects. Today, as an element of the new ACCESS programme, BASS continues to support the competitiveness of European businesses of all sizes and across all sectors, helping them to launch and nurture commercially viable innovative products and services using space technologies, assets or data.